Martingale Risk of Ruin Simulator
Quick Answer
How This Simulator Works
The simulator runs 5,000 independent sessions using a seeded pseudo-random number generator. Each session starts with the base bet and doubles on every loss (Martingale). A session ends when your cumulative profit hits the target, the bankroll is exhausted, or the maximum round limit is reached.
The house edge is applied by setting win probability slightly below 50%. At 1% house edge in an even-money game, each round has a 49.5% win probability. The key insight from this model: Martingale produces a high win rate per session (often above 70%) because small wins happen frequently, but the rare losing sessions are large enough to erase all prior profits. The long-run expected value per dollar wagered remains exactly the house edge.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does Martingale strategy work in crash games?
No. Martingale does not change the expected value of any game. Doubling bets after losses increases short-term win rate but the average loss in losing sessions exactly offsets the gains. With a 1% house edge crash game, the EV per dollar wagered is always -1% regardless of betting pattern. What Martingale does do is dramatically increase variance and the probability of catastrophic ruin when losing streaks occur.
What is risk of ruin in gambling?
Risk of ruin is the probability of losing your entire bankroll before reaching a profit target. It depends on the house edge, bet size relative to bankroll, and session length. With a fixed bet, risk of ruin approaches 100% over a long enough session at any positive house edge. Martingale accelerates ruin by exponentially increasing bets after losses.
How many consecutive losses can Martingale handle?
With a $10 base bet and $1,000 bankroll, Martingale can survive at most 6 consecutive losses before the next bet ($640) exceeds the remaining balance. The probability of 7 consecutive losses in a 50/50 game is about 0.78%, meaning it happens roughly once every 128 sessions. At 100 bets per session, a 7-loss streak is expected in the first few hours of play.
What bet size should I use with Martingale?
The simulator recommends keeping your base bet below 1% of your bankroll to survive at least 7 consecutive losses. Even then, risk of ruin over many sessions remains high due to the house edge. Professional players avoid Martingale entirely because no progression system beats a negative expected value game in the long run.