Is Polymarket gambling?
Polymarket functions like gambling in that you risk money on uncertain outcomes. The key structural difference is that prediction markets let you trade against other people (peer-to-peer), while casinos have you play against the house with a fixed mathematical edge. Regulators have not consistently classified prediction markets as gambling. The CFTC treats regulated prediction markets (like Kalshi) as event contracts. Some jurisdictions treat them as gambling, others as financial instruments.
Read the full analysis: Full breakdown of how prediction markets and casinos compare structurally
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Last updated: March 2026