How do prediction market prices work?

Prediction market shares trade between $0.00 and $1.00. The price represents the market's implied probability. A share at $0.65 means the market assigns 65% probability to that outcome. If the event happens, shares pay $1.00 each. If not, they pay $0.00. Prices move as traders buy and sell based on new information. You profit by buying shares below what you believe the true probability is and being correct.

Read the full analysis: Full guide to prediction market mechanics with step-by-step trading instructions

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Last updated: March 2026